Tag Archive for: EU ETS

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Emission trading in Germany: Revenue, key developments and prospects

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Germany’s emissions trading systems are undergoing fundamental changes. The EU emission trading system (EU ETS 1) faced declining revenues, while the national system (nEHS) sets new revenue records. What drives these developments, and how will upcoming regulatory shifts – from CBAM to the EU ETS 2 – shape Germany’s carbon pricing landscape?

EU ETS 1: Declining revenue with potential upside

The EU ETS 1, which regulates emissions from energy-intensive industrial plants, intra-European aviation, and maritime transport, saw a significant decline in German auction revenue in 2024. The total revenue from auctioning the EU ETS 1 emission allowances (EUA) amounted to approximately EUR 5.5 billion marking a 28% decrease from the EUR 7.7 billion recorded in 2023 (Figure 1). This decline was driven by two main factors: a reduction in the number of EUAs auctioned and a fall in the average EUA price in 2024 compared to 2023 (UBA, 2025).

Figure 1: Auction revenues from the EU ETS 1 in Germany 2023-2025 (source: DEHSt, 2025a)

To reinforce climate goals, the EU continues to reduce the quantity of available EUAs. In 2024, the auctioned amount for Germany dropped to 85 million, down from 92 million in 2023. Additionally, the average price per EUA decreased from 83.66 EUR/tCO2 in 2023 to 65.00 EUR/tCO2 in 2024, reflecting lower demand from the energy and industrial sectors due to higher shares of renewables in the electricity grid and weaker economic conditions. Despite this, the 2024 average price remained 24% higher than the 2021 level, showcasing the long-term strengthening of emissions pricing.

Since the end of 2024, the allowance price in the EU ETS 1 has rallied amid the expectations of lower supply of allowances and thus higher prices during 2025. While the price stood at 65 EUR/tCO2 mid December 2024, it has risen by almost 25% and sometimes traded at above 80 EUR/tCO2 in February 2025. The EUA price expectations for the year 2025 ranges between 80-90 EUR/tCO2 indicating both a tightening of supply and thus likely higher auction revenues again this year.

Record revenues in Germany’s national emission trading system

Unlike the EU ETS 1, the German national emissions trading system (nEHS), which covers emissions from heating and transport, witnessed an increase in revenue. In 2024, revenue from the nEHS reached EUR 13 billion, up 21% from the EUR 10.7 billion recorded in 2023 as Figure 2 shows. This increase was primarily due to a rise in the fixed price of nEHS certificates from €30 per tonne in 2023 to €45 per tonne in 2024 (UBA, 2025).

Figure 2: Sales revenues from the nEHS in Germany 2023-2025 (source: DEHSt, 2025b)

A total of 278 million nEHS certificates were sold on the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig in 2024 at the new fixed price, generating approximately EUR 12.5 billion. An additional 17 million certificates for 2023 were sold at the previous year’s price of 30 EUR/tCO2, adding another €500 million to the total revenue. Despite a lower number of certificates sold compared to 2023 (which saw 358 million certificates sold), the revenue increase was sustained by the price hike.

Total revenues from emission pricing at record high

Germany’s combined revenue from the EU ETS 1 and nEHS reached EUR 18.5 billion in 2024, surpassing the EUR 18.4 billion in 2023 and significantly exceeding the EUR 13 billion in 2022. These funds are allocated to the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF), which finances initiatives supporting Germany’s energy transition and decarbonisation goals.

Dirk Messner, President of the German Environment Agency (UBA), emphasized that emissions trading must continue to be a driving force for climate protection, economic competitiveness, and social sustainability. He advocates for a climate bonus to support households affected by rising carbon prices, alongside targeted subsidies to assist vulnerable groups in transitioning to climate-friendly alternatives (UBA, 2025).

Regulatory developments: Aligning national legislation

The German Bundestag passed the TEHG-Europarechtsanpassungsgesetz 2024 in the end of January 2025, aligning national regulations with the reformed emission trading rules of the EU. Key aspects of this reform include (BMWK, 2025):

  • Inclusion of maritime transport: From 2024, 40% of emissions from shipping are covered under EU ETS 1, increasing to 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026.
  • Stricter emission caps in aviation: Starting 2024, airlines face lower emission limits, and for the first time, they must report non-CO2 climate effects such as contrail formation.
  • Transition to the EU ETS 2 in 2027: The new European emissions trading system for transport and heating will replace the German nEHS and other national carbon pricing schemes of EU Member States.
  • Implementation of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM): CBAM introduces carbon pricing for imports of energy-intensive products such as steel, cement, and aluminum, ensuring fair competition within the EU market. A transition phase is underway, with full financial obligations beginning in 2026.

At the start of 2025, the fixed CO2 price in the nEHS rose from 45 to 55 EUR/tCO2 (compare Table 1), a step that has been planned since the introduction of the system in 2021. This gradual increase allows citizens and businesses time to transition to greener alternatives and will also likely lead to higher sales revenues during 2025 again. With the nEHS being absorbed into the EU ETS 2 from 2027, price for emissions in those sectors will be based on free auction prices.

YearPrice EUR/tCO2Mechanism
202125    Fixed price  
202230
202330
202445
202555
202655-65Auction with price corridor
From 202745-100 (estimates)Auction with free market price (EU ETS 2)
Table 1: Development of emission pricing in the sectors covered by the nEHS

The 2025 price hike in the nEHS is expected to have only moderate impact on fuel costs. The price per liter of gasoline and diesel may rise by around 3 cents. However, fuel prices fluctuate due to external factors such as global oil prices, which often cause greater price variability than carbon pricing alone. For an individual driving 15,000 km annually, the expected cost increase will be around EUR 50 per year (Bundesregierung, 2025).

Conclusion and future trajectory

As the EU emission trading framework expands, carbon pricing evolves as central mechanisms for climate policy. While the EU ETS 1 faced revenue declines due to economic fluctuations and market adjustments, the nEHS saw record revenues driven by increased carbon pricing. Germany’s total revenue from emissions trading reached an all-time high, reinforcing the importance of dedicating these funds to climate mitigation and social equity initiatives.

The price increase in the nEHS, the expected higher prices in the EU ETS 1, the introduction of CBAM and the launch of the EU ETS 2 in 2027 mark significant milestones in the transition towards a carbon-neutral economy. As Europe moves towards its 2050 net-zero target, emissions trading will remain a cornerstone of environmental and economic policy.

Sources

BMWK, 2025, Bundestag beschließt umfassende Reform des Emissionshandels, URL: https://www.bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/Pressemitteilungen/2025/20250131-bundestag-emissionshandel.html

Bundesregierung, 2025, CO2-Preis beträgt jetzt 55 Euro, URL: https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/co2-preis-kohle-abfallbrennstoffe-2061622

DEHSt, 2025a, Auctioning report: Fourth Quarter 2024, URL: https://www.dehst.de/SharedDocs/downloads/EN/auctioning/2024/2024_report_Q4.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3

DEHSt, 2025b, Sales report: Fourth Quarter and entire year 2024, URL: https://www.dehst.de/SharedDocs/downloads/EN/nehs/sales-reports-nehs/2024/2024-Q4_sales-report.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3

UBA, 2025, Revenue from emission trading one again at record level, URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/press/pressinformation/revenue-from-emissions-trading-once-again-at-record

Carbon markets: Which role does biomass play?

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Although compliance and voluntary carbon markets vary in scope, mechanisms and participants, biomass occupies a unique place. In compliance carbon markets such as the EU ETS, participants are obliged to monitor and report their emissions and ultimately pay for them. Using biomass in industrial facilities can allow for reduced financial burdens. Regulators set rules around biomass use and sustainability criteria to comply with. A large part of voluntary carbon market credits is generated by nature-based solutions, including forestry and other biomass-related projects. These projects are however under intense scrutiny due to issues regarding transparency and associated climate claims. Novel carbon removal solutions with biomass as feedstock show promising development and renewed regulatory oversight could restore trust.

Which CO2 and which carbon markets?

To assess the relevance of carbon markets for biomass and vice versa, requires an understanding of different types of emissions and how carbon markets account for them. The sources of CO2 emissions and their final sink can be categorized into four main pathways (Figure 1).

  • Unabated carbon emissions from fossil sources add emissions to the atmosphere (grey and black)
  • Abated emissions from fossil sources through carbon capture and storage (CCS) with long-term storage might not add additional GHG emissions to the atmosphere (purple)
  • Negative emissions through nature-based or technological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) solutions taking CO2 out of the atmosphere and storing it durably (green)
  • Utilisation of CO2 through carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) technologies, where the ultimate source of the CO2 (atmospheric or fossil) and the final product into which the CO2-molecules has been transformed determine the climate impact (blue)

Detailed analysis of the technological pathways, supply-chain emissions, and substitution effects is required to establish emission reduction potentials of these solutions.

Figure 1: Different pathways of CO2: fossil emission, CCS, CCU and carbon dioxide removal. Source: carboneer

Compliance and voluntary carbon markets both incentivise emission reduction or carbon removal, however each from a different angle. Compliance carbon markets aim to fulfill national or regional climate targets. By putting a price tag on emissions and they incentivise compliant actors to reduce their emissions in a cost-efficient way. The mechanics of voluntary carbon markets (VCM) aim at financially supporting projects that either reduce emissions or provide negative emissions through CDR. Private actors can purchase carbon credits from project developers to offset or neutralise their corporate emissions.

The EU ETS: zero rating for biomass

The EU ETS is one of the largest and most mature compliance carbon markets. Since its inception in 2005, the EU ETS has been a cornerstone of EU climate policy, covering 35-40% of the region’s emissions. Large industrial facilities, such as steel mills, chemical plants, cement kilns, and power plants as well as aviation and maritime transport operators need to monitor and report their annual emissions. For each ton of CO2-eq emitted, the compliant entity must surrender an emission allowance. The price of this allowance is determined at the market. Currently, many industrial facilities still receive free allowances. To prevent carbon-leakage while facing out this free allocation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) requires importers of certain goods from non-EU countries to report the embedded carbon emissions in imports and from 2026 onwards also to pay the same carbon price as EU-based industry. Most emissions from buildings and road transport in the EU are not yet subject to a carbon price. This changes with the new EU ETS 2 covering another 35-40% of the EU’s GHG emissions. Since 2024, suppliers of liquid, gaseous or solid fuels are required to monitor and report emissions released by their fuels at the end-user. Pricing in the EU ETS 2 starts in 2027.

Carbon in biomass ultimately comes from the atmosphere. When combusted, only CO2 stored in the biomass is released back to the atmosphere. However, for a comprehensive life cycle assessment, factors such as land-use emissions due to biomass harvesting or emissions along the value chain need to be considered. According to current regulations, emissions from biomass and biofuels in the EU ETS 1, CBAM and EU ETS 2 can generally be counted as zero, thus reducing the number of allowances to be purchased by compliant entities and reducing their costs (Figure 2). Depending on the type of biomass and its utilisation, compliance with the Renewable Energy Directive for sustainability or GHG saving criteria needs to be achieved.

Figure 2: Criteria for biomass utilisation in the EU ETS 1. Source: carboneer

VCM: Carbon removal with biomass

Forests, mangroves, biochar kilns and waste-to-energy plants with CCS all have in common that they are examples of biomass-based project on the VCM. Private entities purchase carbon credits from project developers to offset or neutralise their (hard-to-abate) emissions. These projects either reduce emissions or remove CO2 from the atmosphere and must follow certain standards and methodologies for project set-up and emission calculation. Third-party verification of the projects’ climate effects is needed to create trust and transparency in voluntary carbon markets where regulatory oversight is only rudimentary.

While a wide range of VCM methodologies and projects exist, biomass-based projects are ubiquitous and particularly divers. Many biomass VCM projects potentially create negative emissions (to stay within the targets of the Paris Agreement, estimates for the required global carbon removal capacity range from 5-10 Gt/year or 5-20% of today’s total emissions). While trees might store atmospheric carbon for decades, technological solutions, such as pyrolysis with biochar or bioenergy with CCS remove carbon for hundreds or thousands of years. Project developers and buyers of credits on the VCM need to navigate complexities arising from cost considerations, project types and quality, and applicable methodologies and standards (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Carbon removal solutions and considerations for VCM projects. Source: carboneer

To reduce the lack of credibility that has plagued the VCM and associated climate claims of credit buyers, the EU currently develops its own methodologies under the Carbon Removal Certification Framework. As corporates are increasingly under pressure to develop credible climate strategies, carbon removal solutions utilising biomass have their role to play. Several announcements of large-scale credit purchases by corporates from biochar and bioenergy with CCS project developers underscores that point.

Biomass and carbon markets: the take-aways

CO2 is not CO2: The ultimate origin of the molecule matters. Compliance and voluntary carbon markets assess emissions from different perspectives and objectives. Due to the wide array of biomass applications, rules on eligibility as well as on emission accounting in compliance and voluntary carbon market differ. Biomass use in the ETS can reduce costs for industrials and allow for decarbonisation at the same time. Biomass enables carbon removal solutions, but stakeholders need to navigate the murky waters of voluntary carbon markets. Finally, interactions between the EU ETS and the VCM might be restored against the backdrop of industrial carbon management policies, the need to scale carbon removal and to provide market stability in the ETS. Complexities abound when biomass meets carbon markets.

This article appeared first in Bioenergy International No 1-2024

The EU ETS 2 – pricing emissions in buildings and road transport

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The European Union’s Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) constitutes a cornerstone of the EU’s strategy to combat climate change since its establishment in 2005. The new EU ETS 2, implemented from 2024 covers emissions from buildings, road transport, and additional sectors such as fuel use in small industrial installations. The EU ETS 2 is founded upon the objectives of the EU Climate Law and the Fit-for-55 package and requires the fuel suppliers to monitor and report emissions in their fuels. From 2027 when the EU ETS 2 is fully operational, emission allowances need to be purchased and surrendered based on the emissions in the fuels sold. This new emission trading system adds a further layer of complexity to the regulatory compliance landscape.

Key facts about the EU ETS 2

The EU ETS 2 will be running in parallel to the EU ETS 1 and encompasses areas that were previously excluded, such as the buildings and road transport sectors. The operational principle of the EU ETS 2 is based on a cap-and-trade system, where an annually decreasing cap is set on total emissions and a corresponding number of allowances is auctioned to regulated entities. One allowance needs to be surrendered per ton of CO2 emitted. The EU ETS 2 is designed to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 in comparison to 2005 levels. In contrast to the EU ETS 1, which regulates emissions at the point of origin, the EU ETS 2 places the compliance burden upstream at the release for consumption of fuels and not at the point where fuels are combusted. Estimates of the EU Commission expect up to 11.400 fuel suppliers, distributers and resellers to be regulated (regulated entities). This new system harmonises national and EU responsibilities, targets and emissions pricing.

To determine emissions under the scope of the EU ETS 2, a comprehensive monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system is implemented at the company-level. To avoid double counting, emissions from fuel combustion under the EU ETS 1 should not be counted in the EU ETS 2. This requires fuel suppliers and their clients to provide proof and documentation in such cases. The EU ETS 2 permits the coexistence of national carbon taxes with the EU ETS 2, allowing EU Member States to exempt companies from EU ETS 2 requirements until 2030 if national measures are more stringent. In Germany the national ETS is only fully integrated into the EU ETS 2 from 2027 onwards, which makes a double reporting of emissions necessary for 2024 – 2026.

First compliance deadlines in 2024

For companies subject to the EU ETS 2, key compliance activities should already be ongoing, and deadlines are approaching soon. Companies must commence monitoring emissions by January 2024 and report those emissions by 30 April 2025. The timeline for compliance is stringent, as Figure 1 indicates.

Figure 1: Timeline of EU ETS 2 compliance obligations. Source: carboneer

To monitor emissions in accordance with the rules of the EU ETS 2, by 31 August 2024 a monitoring plan should be submitted to the competent national authority. Full compliance, especially procuring and surrendering allowances under the EU ETS 2 is required from 2027, and failure to meet these deadlines can result in significant penalties and legal repercussions, making it imperative for companies to commence preparations without delay. The potential consequences of non-compliance include financial penalties and loss of competitiveness.

From 2027 onwards allowances under the EU ETS 2 will be auctioned. An allocation of free allowances such as during the start of the EU ETS 1 and currently still applied to EU industry will not exist. To regulate the supply of allowances and maintain price stability, a market stability reserve will be implemented. The initial allowance cap in 2027 will be determined by applying a 5.1% annual reduction to the 2024 emission level. From 2025 onwards, this linear reduction factor increases to 5.38%. This implies that the total supply of allowances in 2027 will be approximately 1.25 billion, declining to below 800 million by 2030. Figure 2 illustrates the decline in the allowance auction volumes over time, aligned with the EU’s long-term sectoral climate targets.

Figure 2: Approximate EU ETS 2 allowance supply. Source: carboneer

Challenges and complexity

The EU ETS 2 presents a significant challenge for companies as they need to develop comprehensive emission monitoring plans, detailing their activities, fuel types, and emission calculation methodologies to comply with their obligations. Especially the calculation of the emissions can be a complex undertaking. First, a scope factor needs to be established to determine the portion of a company’s fuel sales that lie within the regulated activities, such as buildings and road transport. The scope factor ranges from 0 (no fuel in scope) to 1 (all fuel in scope). This ensures only relevant emissions are counted. Using the correct emission factor for different fuels along with the quantity of fuels, the total CO2-emissions can be calculated.

To ensure data quality, the MRV follows a tier system that categorises data accuracy from Tier 1 (least accurate) to Tier 4 (most accurate). Higher tiers, used for companies with more larger fuel streams and thus higher emissions, require more precise data, ensuring reliable results. Importantly, emissions from fuels based on biomass can be zero-rated if they fulfil the criteria on biomass under the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) II and the upcoming RED III.

Monitoring plans must gain approval from the competent national authority, underscoring the importance of early and thorough preparation. The emission reporting for 2024 is due 30 April 2025, with third-party verification becoming mandatory from the 2025 emission report on. The introduction of the EU ETS 2 pricing can result in significant cost increases, which will have an impact on both operational expenses and consumer prices. Figure 3 displays price forecasts for the allowances in the EU ETS from different sources. As prices are determined through demand and supply, they can be expected to exhibit significant volatility, with forecasts ranging from €48 to €340 per tCO2 by 2030. Companies ought to manage cost risk via tailored procurement strategies for EU ETS 2 allowances.

Figure 3: Forecast of EU ETS 2 allowances prices in 2030. Data Source: UBA, 2024, Source: carboneer


The Social Climate Fund plays a crucial role in mitigating the financial impact on vulnerable consumers in the EU. Its objective is to support vulnerable households and micro-enterprises that are impacted by the transition to a low-carbon economy. The fund, financed by revenues from the auctioning of allowances, provides financial assistance for measures that reduce emissions and energy costs. One example is the provision of subsidies to enhance the energy efficiency of residential properties such as improvements to insulation and the installation of more efficient heating systems. This dual focus on households and businesses ensures a broader impact, promoting social equity and economic resilience, and helps to offset some of the financial burdens and operational challenges posed by the EU ETS 2.

To understand the potential impact of the rising allowance prices, Figure 4 illustrates how different fuel types are being impacted by different allowance prices.

Figure 4: Price impact on different fuels under varying EU ETS 2 allowance prices. Source: carboneer

What should an EU ETS strategy entail?

Due to the complexity of the EU ETS 2 and its stringent timeline, a sound EU ETS 2 strategy is essential. But what does a company need to prepare for?

MRV details and compliance cycle

  • Development of comprehensive monitoring plans that cover all relevant activities, fuel types, and emission calculation methodologies
  • Monitoring plans must be approved by national authorities
  • Verification of emissions

Compliance obligations:

  • Detailed understanding of the EU ETS 2 rules and associated regulation
  • Build capacity, assign responsibilities, internal and external communication
  • Access to registries and EU ETS 2 allowances

Financial impact assessment:

  • Assessment of EU ETS 2 exposure and cost forecasts
  • Implementation of strategies to manage costs and pass on costs to consumers
  • Risk management and allowance procurement strategies to reduce financial exposure

Conclusion

The EU ETS 2 is a crucial tool in the European Union’s strategy to combat climate change by establishing a new cap-and-trade system for fuels in sectors such as buildings and road transport. It aims to reduce emissions by 42% by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. The system introduces complex obligation for companies that require planning and a compliance strategy, including stringent monitoring, reporting, and verification processes starting from 2024. With allowance prices expected to rise significantly, the financial implications are substantial and necessitate robust risk management and hedging strategies. Companies should act now to understand and navigate these new regulations, ensuring compliance and maintaining competitiveness.

Authors: Florian Schlennert and Simon Göß.

Sources: UBA, 2024, Supply and Demand in the ETS 2, URL: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/publikationen/supply-demand-in-the-ets-2